Player/team first-score rates, first-shot rate, shot zones, opponent history and opening lineup context.

Projected starters, injuries, rest, pace, home/away, expected tip participants and lineup usage.

Estimate jump-win probability, first-possession probability and likely opening action by team.

Blend on-court likelihood, opening touch rate, first-shot share, finishing efficiency and matchup effects.

Back-test predicted probabilities against held-out seasons and publish calibration diagnostics.

Keep observed ESPN facts separate from bookmaker odds, forecasts and unverified assumptions.